Author: chris

Assignment Overview

Scenario: You are consultant for the Excellent Consulting Group. Your client wants to be able to forecast sales on a monthly basis and believes that there is a valid relationship between sales and the number of hits on their website during the previous month. To test this theory, the client has collected data on sales of one of its products, a lottery app for smart phones and hits on its website.
Case Assignment

Using Excel and linear regression analyze the data and determine how to do forecasting using website hits.

Then forecast the next three months using the monthly hits data. Compare the forecast to the actual sales and determine the forecasting error. Ask your Instructor for the data for the actual sales when you are ready (This data is in the Case data file).

Then write a report to your boss and the client that briefly describes the results that you obtained. Make a recommendation on how this might be used for forecasting purposes.
Data: Download the Word file Case 3 Data.docx with the data. Use this data in Excel for your analysis.

Assignment Expectations
Analysis
Accurate and complete Linear Regression analysis in Excel.
Written Report
Length requirements = 45 pages minimum (not including Cover and Reference pages)
Provide a brief introduction/ background of the problem.
Complete and accurate Excel analysis.
Written analysis that supports Excel analysis, and provides thorough discussion of assumptions, rationale, and logic used.
Complete, meaningful, and accurate recommendation(s).
Instruction files

bus520_case_3_data.docx(16,89 KiB)
bus520_mod_3_case.docx(89,96 KiB)

The aim of this assignment is to test your understanding and critical awareness of the keycomponents of quantitative research. More specifically, this assignment aims at examining yourknowledge with respect to your understanding and critical evaluation of the key components requiredof an original and effectivewell performed research, your ability to analyse and critique the validity andlimitations of various research methods as well as your written communication.In doing so, you will have to design, conduct, analyse and interpret a small-scale quantitativeresearch project on a topic of your choice.
The individual assignment should be divided into 4 parts and its structure should be similar to anacademic quantitative journal article.
Part 1: Construct a questionnaire.This part should follow from your group presentation where you already reviewed anddiscussed the relevant literature to outline relevant concepts that are of interest to you.
More specifically this part should include a very brief background to your research, a very brief review ofliterature to outline relevant concepts. It should lead into an outline of your research questions or/and hypotheses.
Part 2:Data collection
This part is the core methodology hence it should show how you constructed yourquestionnaire (why those questions – relate to your Part 1), your sampling strategy, datacollection procedures and how you imputed loaded the data into SPSS
Part 3:Data analysis
This part is the continuation of Part 2 hence it should include the analysis of your collected dataas well as the justification of the chosen statistical tests. It is vital that, in this part, you relateback to Part 1 (i.e. what research questions you wanted to answer).
Part 4:DiscussionThis part forms the concluding remarks of your work. Hence, it should report and discuss your findings, possible limitations of your work as well as any research implications and/or relevance for management.

Scenario: Using the situation from SLP2, recall that you are deciding between two investments. However, they each require a different initial investment amount. And you also have a third option, to invest in a 10 year municipal bond with a very high return. Here are the investment options with the augmented data.

Option A: Real estate development. This is a risky opportunity with the possibility of a high payoff, but also with no payoff at all. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the Net Present Value of the cash flow and probabilities.

Required initial investment: $0.75 million

High NPV: $5 million, Pr = 0.5

Medium NPV: $2 million, Pr = 0.3

Low NPV: $0, Pr = 0.2

Option B: Retail franchise for Just Hats, a boutique type store selling fashion hats for men and women. This also is a risky opportunity but less so than option A. It has the potential for less risk of failure, but also a lower payoff. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the Net Present Value of the cash flow and probabilities.

Required initial investment: $0.55 million

High NPV: $3 million, Pr = 0.75

Medium NPV: $2 million, Pr = 0.15

Low NPV: $1 million, Pr = 0.1

Option C: High Yield Municipal Bonds. This option has low risk and is assumed to be a Certainty. So there is only one outcome with probability of 1.0
Required initial investment: $0.75 million
NPV: $1.5 million, Pr = 1.0

Assignment

Develop an analysis of these three investments. Use expected NPV to determine which of these you should choose. Be sure to include all cash flows to generate the total NPV of each alternative. Do your analysis in Excel using decision tree.

Write a report to your private investment company and explain your analysis and your recommendation. Provide a rationale for your decision.

Upload both your written report and Excel file with the decision tree analysis to the SLP 3 Dropbox.

BONUS (2.0 pts): If the two options A and B could be made to be equal, what would have to change in the NPVs in Option A to make it equal to Option B?
Instruction files

bus520_mod_3_slp_assignment.docx(106,55 KiB)

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13. Workers Distractions A recent study showed that
the modern working person experiences an average of
2.1 hours per day of distractions (phone calls, e-mails,
impromptu visits, etc.). A random sample of 50 workers
for a large corporation found that these workers were
distracted an average of 1.8 hours per day and the
population standard deviation was 20 minutes. Estimate
the true mean population distraction time with 90%
confidence, and compare your answer to the results of
the study.
Source: Time Almanac.

14. Golf Averages A study of 35 golfers showed that their
average score on a particular course was 92. The
standard deviation of the population is 5.
a. Find the best point estimate of the mean.
b. Find the 95% confidence interval of the mean score
for all golfers.
c. Find the 95% confidence interval of the mean score
if a sample of 60 golfers is used instead of a sample
of 35.
d. Which interval is smaller? Explain why.

17. Television Viewing A study of 415 kindergarten students
showed that they have seen on average 5000 hours of
television. If the sample standard deviation of the
population is 900, find the 95% confidence level of the
mean for all students. If a parent claimed that his children
watched 4000 hours, would the claim be believable?

18. Day Care Tuition A random sample of 50 four-year-olds
attending day care centers provided a yearly tuition
average of $3987 and the population standard deviation
of $630. Find the 90% confidence interval of the true
mean. If a day care center were starting up and wanted to
keep tuition low, what would be a reasonable amount to
charge?

19. Hospital Noise Levels Noise levels at various area
urban hospitals were measured in decibels. The mean
of the noise levels in 84 corridors was 61.2 decibels,
and the standard deviation of the population was 7.9.
Find the 95% confidence interval of the true mean.
Source: M. Bayo, A. Garcia, and A. Garcia, Noise Levels in an Urban
Hospital and Workers Subjective Responses, Archives of Environmental
Health 50, no. 3, p. 249 (MayJune 1995). Reprinted with permission of
the Helen Dwight Reid Educational Foundation. Published by Heldref
Publications, 1319 Eighteenth St. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036-1802.
Copyright 1995.

20. Length of Growing Seasons The growing seasons for
a random sample of 35 U.S. cities were recorded,
yielding a sample mean of 190.7 days and the population
standard deviation of 54.2 days. Estimate the true mean
population of the growing season with 95% confidence

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Summary and response essay